LO1: Terminology
- Knowledge: Knows climate change processes, including the greenhouse effect, weather patterns, and long-term climate projections
- Skills: Can understand potential changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables
- Competencies: Is able to explain climate change processes and climate variables, and can differentiate between different terms
- Link to Content: Understanding Climate Change and the farm impact on climate change
LO2: Climate change in agriculture
- Knowledge: Knows the importance of greenhouse gases in agriculture and where they occur
- Skills: Can identify the impacts of greenhouse gases and can think of solutions how to reduce them
- Competencies: Is able to recognise the problematic effect of greenhouse gases and is able to react appropriate
- Link to Content: Understanding Climate Change and the farm impact on climate change
LO3: Climate protection law
- Knowledge: Knows about the existence of the climate protection law and the most important goals of it
- Skills: Can understand the importance of the climate protection law and understands the different articles
- Competencies: Is able to think of necessary measures to meet the guidelines of the climate protection law
- Link to Content: Understanding Climate Change and the farm impact on climate change
LOC4: Analysis of impacts on farms
- Knowledge: Knows potential climate change impacts on the farm
- Skills: Can identify potential climate change impacts on the farm
- Competencies: Is able to evaluate potential climate change impacts on the farm
- Link to Content: Risk Assessment and Management
LOC5: SWOT- and Risk analyses
- Knowledge: Knows vulnerabilities and risks associated with climate change
- Skills: Can assess vulnerabilities and risks associated with climate change
- Competencies: Is able to conduct risk analyses and to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the farm’s susceptibility to climate-related risks
- Link to Content: Risk Assessment and Management
Introduction
Welcome to the “Climate Risk & Resilience Assessment” learning module. Rapid climate change and the urgent need for sustainable food production is having a major impact on the agricultural sector and is changing it permanently. To successfully cope with these changes as an agricultural business, you need basic knowledge, skills and competencies related to climate change as well as its impacts and risks on the agricultural sector. As a farmer, this is a prerequisite to make informed decisions regarding climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.
By the end of this module, you will have a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, be able to assess risks to your farm, and find appropriate solutions.
Climate Change
Definition of terms
Weather
- Current state of the atmosphere
- Can be experienced directly by everyone
- Is tangible, e.g., temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed,…
Climate
- averaged weather over a long period of time (at least 30 years or more) -> Therefore, it is possible that a particularly cold period will occur even though global temperatures are rising on average
- Abstract, not tangible
- a change in climate can lead to changes in weather patterns
The global climate has always been undergoing changes.
However, it is changing much more rapidly today than in the past, bringing with it a variety of dangers and problems (man-made climate change).
Greenhouse effect
- Natural process
- Without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature would not be the current plus 15°C, but minus 18°C
- Artificially enhanced by humans
Greenhouse gas emissions
- Methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide are the three most important greenhouse gases in agriculture. An accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere leads to a warming of the lower air layers.
Climate Change
Climate Change can be seen, among other things, in:
- Rise in global average of near-surface air temperature and sea level
- Retreat of mountain glaciers and snow cover on global average
- Extreme events becoming more frequent (e.g., heavy precipitation and heat waves)
It does not manifest itself in the same way everywhere in the world. The following effects are particularly evident in Europe (Central and Western):
- Increased precipitation in winter and spring
- Increased annual average temperature
- Increased occurrence of extreme weather events
- More severe periods of drought and heat or periods of high precipitation.
The extreme characteristics of weather events will continue to intensify in the future.
Climate change in agriculture
Cause, Impact and Solution:
Cause: Through the emission of greenhouse gases, the agricultural industry contributes significantly to climate change.
Impact: Agriculture is severely affected by the consequences of climate change, as e.g., harvests fail, and various sources of income are lost.
Solution: Climate protection attempts to minimize the effects of climate change by limiting global warming through the reduction of gases that affect the climate. Agriculture can make numerous contributions to climate protection.
GHG emissions in agriculture
Greenhouse gases in agriculture
Where do greenhouse gas emissions occur in European agriculture?
- Methane: Digestion process in ruminants / cattle, emissions from manure storage
- N2O, NF3: Storage and spreading of mineral and agricultural fertilizers, nitrogen emissions to ground and surface water, gaseous nitrogen losses, mineralization from peat soils
- CO2: Emissions from energy consumption on farms and fuel use
| Greenhouse gases (GHG) *GHGs in agriculture |
|---|
|
Carbon dioxide (CO2)* |
|
Nitrous oxide (N2O)* |
|
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
|
|
Fluorinated hydrocarbons (HFC)
|
|
Methane (CH4)* |
|
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)* |
|
Perfluorocarbons (PFC) |
2021 European Climate Law
The European Climate Law has been in place since 2021 to counteract this.
Objectives:
- General target is net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (goal set out in the European Green Deal)
- Reduction of at least 55% greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990
Emission reduction in agriculture:
- Between 2005 and 2021, the EU’s agricultural GHG emissions have an overall slight decreasing trend of 2% in 2021.
- Although agricultural GHG emissions changed very little at the EU level between 2005 and 2020, trends varied widely at the national level, with emissions increasing in 14 and decreasing in 13 Member States. For instance, emissions decreased by more than 10% in Croatia, Greece, Malta and Romania, and increased by more than 10% in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary and Latvia.
- Greenhouse gas reduction in agriculture is lower than in other sectors, because GHG emissions can only be reduced to a limited extent through technical measures and thus natural processes must be intervened in 🡪 An agriculture without emissions is not possible!
What can be done?
Barn construction and storage:
- Gas-tight storage of the fertilizer, for example in a biogas plant
- Rapid separation of urine and faeces
- Covering of manure stores
- Stable construction concepts with a direct supply of the farm slurry to a biogas plant
Application of the fertilizer:
- Application close to the ground
- Rapid incorporation of the fertilizer into the soil
- Grazing
- Change of the feed composition (reduction of fibres in the feed, use of fats and additives, high basic feed quality)
- Improvement of milk yield, easily digestible food
- Cow stock (reduction of the reproduction rate, low first calving age)
- Herd management (reduction of animal losses, promotion of 2-use breeds, increasing the lifetime yields of dairy cows)
- Fodder production (low feed losses, high yields per unit area, efficient use of nitrogen, positive humus balance, climate-friendly fodder production)
- By-products Slaughter cow and calf (slaughter cows fit for consumption, high slaughter weight, healthy calves)
Cows kept on pasture have a lower methane production than cows kept indoors.
All other things being equal, higher milk yields lead to a smaller CO2 footprint.
- Promotion of organic farming (renunciation of nitrogen mineral fertilizers)
- Avoidance of food waste, reduction of the consumption of animal products
- Preservation and build-up of organic matter on agricultural land (maintaining and building up humus in arable land, conservation of permanent grassland and conversion of arable land to grassland, preservation and establishment of hedges, copses and agroforestry systems)
- Expansion of legume cultivation
- Protection and regeneration of peatlands
- Renewable energies and energy efficiency (reduction of energy consumption in agricultural enterprises)
The two most important measures are the reduction of the cow stock and the protection of peatlands
Quiz
Climate tools
What are climate tools?
Climate tools are central aids for identifying possible climate protection measures for a company
- They help to show the potential for optimization on farms for climate protection
- They are essential instruments of agricultural climate protection
Climate tools are models that aim to represent the origin and presence of GHG emissions
- They are in a constant balancing act between accuracy/high level of detail and simplicity/user-friendliness
Which climate tool is the right one depends on the intended use
The use of climate tools is only the first step and the real goal, the implementation of measures, can only be achieved with the help of consultants
| Tool | Characteristics | Goal | Application area |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ideal as a first introduction to the energy and GHG debate
|
Creation of a free short report
|
Dairy and mother cows, pigs, arable and forage farming, forestry
|
| Tool | Characteristics | Feature | Application area |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Previous training required
|
Individual climate analysis of the farm |
Agriculture, viticulture, fruit growing, berries, vegetables, meat (fattening), mother cows, chicken fattening, laying hens, pig farming, small ruminants, deer farming, natural fodder farming, biogas |
|
|
Commercial |
Individual climate analysis of the farm
|
Milk production, mother cows
|
|
|
Free basis version, chargeable special version
|
Focus on greenhouse gases, biodiversity, water use and food loss and waste
|
Plant cultivation, livestock farming
|
|
|
Free Online-Tool |
Assessment of the climate impact of agricultural activity at the level of individual production processes and the farm |
Crop production, livestock farming, fodder production/seed production, farm structure |
|
|
Free download |
Overview of humus, nutrient, greenhouse gas and energy balances
|
Plant cultivation |
|
|
Free Online-Tool
|
Tractor booklet to help with data collection
|
Farm structure, agriculture, yields, market participation
|
|
|
Commercial
|
Calculating the CO2 footprint
|
Milk production and pork at product level
|
|
|
Free download after registration
|
Calculating and analysing greenhouse gas emissions and cumulative energy expenditure
|
Plant cultivation
|
|
|
Free Online-Tool & Downloads |
Individual climate footprint
|
Plant cultivation, livestock farming, biogas |
|
|
Online tool |
Helps to assess the environmental footprint of a farm and to identify areas for improvement |
Agriculture, milk production, mother cows, small ruminants
|
|
|
AEI-Climate
|
Contact request required for use |
Calculation of agri-environmental indicators (AEI) at both national and farm level |
Agriculture, viticulture, fruit growing, berries, vegetables, meat (fattening), mother cows, chicken fattening, laying hens, pig farming, small ruminants, natural fodder farming
|
|
Commercial |
Aims to reduce GHG emissions, food competition and land competition |
Milk production (in theory, all farm branches are taken into account, but cannot be considered separately) |
|
|
Free Online-Tool |
Preparation of company and product-specific energy and greenhouse gas balances |
Milk production |
| Tool | Characteristics | Functions | Application area |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Commercial |
Full accounting with operational enquiry and evaluation
|
Livestock, plants, economy |
|
|
Licensed software
|
Full balancing with a scientific focus, several modules can be added, several companies can be balanced in parallel
|
Location, plant cultivation, stock, livestock farming
|
SWOT-Analysis
A SWOT analysis is a simple and useful framework for analyzing the internal and external environment of businesses.
The SWOT acronym stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.
It helps businesses set priorities based on what they do well, address weaknesses, minimize threats, and make the most of opportunities. Developing a SWOT analysis is an important aspect of strategic planning and should be updated annually or as needed.
A SWOT analysis identifies all positive and negative factors inside and outside a business that influence its success.
Strengths and weaknesses are internal factors, which means that one can influence or control them. Strengths and weaknesses usually include aspects like human competencies, products and services, production and process capabilities, and resources (financial, physical, or natural – can sometimes also be external). The plan should leverage and build on strengths while minimizing or eliminating weaknesses.
Opportunities and threats are external factors (or trends) that can positively or negatively impact the business. Management cannot control opportunities and threats. However, it can identify opportunities and prepare to take advantage of them or to mitigate or fend off external threats and forces.
The SWOT-analysis tool can also be adapted to specific questions and is thus very suitable for working out how well a farm is adapted to the effects of climate change and what hazards it might face in terms of climate impacts.
Risk assessment
Introduction
Risk assessment in agriculture is crucial for ensuring the sustainability and resilience of farming practices. By evaluating potential threats and uncertainties, such as adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks, market fluctuations, and regulatory changes, farmers can make informed decisions to mitigate risks and protect their livelihoods. Effective risk assessment allows for proactive planning, resource allocation, and the adoption of appropriate strategies to safeguard crop yields, financial stability, and environmental integrity in the face of various challenges.
Risk assessment matrices and assessment tools provide a structured framework for categorizing and prioritizing risks based on their likelihood and potential impact, enabling stakeholders to focus on high-priority risks and allocate resources effectively for mitigation.
Risk assessment matrices
Climate Risks in agriculture
Climatic trend: Increasing summer drought
- RISKS
- Yield & quality losses
- Reduced activity of soil life
- Effects on fertiliser management
- Crop protection
- Tillage
- Sowing
- CHANCES
Potentially lower fungal pressure
Climatic trend: Shift of precipitation into the winter half-year
- RISKS
- Increased nutrient leaching
- Increased risk of erosion
- shifts in sowing dates
- poorer passability of the fields
Climatic trend: Increasing heavy precipitation
- RISKS
- Increased risk of erosion and silting
- Increased nutrient leaching
Climatic trend: Increasing average annual temperatures
- RISKS
- Increased disease
- Pest and weed pressure
- Higher evaporation/transpiration
- Possibly higher humus decomposition
- CHANCES
Cultivation of “new” heat-loving crops
Climatic trend: Increasing summer (Tmax >25°C) and heat days (Tmax >30°C)
- RISKS
- Lower fertilisation rate
- Shorter grain ripening times
- Possibly lower yields
- Quality losses
- Higher radiation intensity
Climatic trend: Increased late frost risk
- RISKS
- Generally reduced number of late frost days, but increased risk of occurrence in sensitive phases of the crops.
Climatic trend: Increased weather variability
- RISKS
- Increased risk of stable weather conditions (heat, wetness)
- Poor plannability
- CHANCES
- Stable dry weather conditions – longer harvest windows
- Equalisation of work peaks
- Potentially lower fungal pressure
Climatic trend: Longer vegetation period
- RISKS
- Increased mineralisation/risk of leaching
- Increased disease
- Pest
- Weed pressure
- CHANCES
- Earlier sowings
- Cultivation of late-maturing varieties
- More time to establish catch crops
Climate Risks for animals
Climatic trend: Increasing temperatures, higher radiation intensity, increased summer (Tmax >25°C) and heat days (Tmax >30°C), increasing enthalpy values
- RISKS
- Heat stress
- Fluid release e.g. through sweating, panting …
- Increasing need for water, increasing need for electrolytes (Na, Cl, Mg, K and Ca)
- Reduced feed intake, reduced energy intake
- Weakened immune system, increased morbidity
- Circulatory problems
- Virus diseases like swine fever and bluetongue disease can increase
- Danger of sunburn
- Reduced performance
- Fertility disorder in female and male animals
- Increased animal losses
- Increased costs for air cooling, ventilation
- CHANCES
Reduced heating costs
Climatic trend: Milder winters, higher average temperature, longer vegetation period
- RISKS
- Increase in pests (species and individuals)
- Increase in vector-borne diseases
- CHANCES
Reduced heating costs
Climate Risk Assessment
- Methodology offers options for action
- Assessment includes evaluating the magnitude of the expected impacts and identifying the costs and benefits of the most promising risk management options
- Provides helpful guidance that highlights the following important aspects in the context of losses and damages
- Stakeholder involvement
- Consideration of socio-economic trends
- Evaluation of risk tolerance and identification of risk levels
- Identification of feasible and relevant measures
Climate Risk Management
- Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) builds the foundation for successful Climate Risk Management (CRM)
- For a successful risk management, you should take social, economic, non-economic, institutional, biophysical and environmental aspects under consideration
- To attain the smartest mix of measures for a given situation, you should link tried-and-tested measures with innovative instruments and transformational approaches in a comprehensive and integrated way
Resilience and vulnerability
Resilience:
- Resilience is the ability to recover from shocks and negative impacts (impacts related to climate change)
- Resilience highlights the learning capacity of a society and its ability to reorganize itself in response to negative events
Climate resilience:
- Climate resilience focuses on disturbances and events caused by climate change and investigates future climate-related risks
- Climate-resilient development, attempts to reduce vulnerability to risk by exploiting potential opportunities and increasing adaptive capacities
Resilience and vulnerability:
- Clearest links between resilience and vulnerability are seen in socio-economic, institutional, political and cultural adaptive capacities -> Reducing vulnerability by enhancing adaptive capacity increases resilience
Chances-Risk-Analysis
In contrast to the SWOT-Analysis, the opportunity-risk-analysis only looks at developments outside the company and their influence on the company
Aim of the analysis: Uncovering innovation potential for the company
What is needed: Comprehensive data on the business environment as well as forecasts on the future development of the environment -> forecast depends on predictions about future development
Implementation:
- Which elements should be contrasted? (environmental factors)
- Generating a matrix from the elements -> the matrix gives indications of future innovation potentials
Outcome: List of chances and risks
CANARI
CANARI is a free-to-access web portal for agricultural stakeholders who want to calculate local agro-climatic indicators from climate projections directly online, easily and quickly.
These indicators are generated using different climate models to visualise possible climate changes.
CANARI is a unique tool that allows you to:
- Quickly and easily mobilize scientifically validated climate projections for all of Europe
- Select several agro-climatic indicators (ACIs) that cover the needs of different agricultural sectors (crops, livestock, tree crops, etc.)
- Obtain the result in just a few seconds, as the ACI is calculated immediately
- Develop these indicators for the period 2020-2050 (near future) to better understand the future variability of the different climate parameters, but also for the period 2050-2100 (far future) to consider long-term consequences
- Obtain a multi-model approach for several climate scenarios
- Have the possibility of freely modifying the parameters of each pre-defined ACI, be it the threshold or the period, and thus to calibrate its request to its local problems.
Second Activity Module 4.II
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Where on the farm are the most greenhouse gases produced? What can be done to reduce these emissions?
- Think about the strengths and weaknesses of your own farm and how external factors impact the development of your farm 🡪 Please work through the SWOT Analysis worksheet for this.
If you would like to present the results of your SWOT analysis, there are various PowerPoint templates available free of charge at slideegg.com.
- Please run a simulation for your own region using the CANARI application. Try out different parameters.
Follow the link: canari-europe.com
You must be registered to use the application. The registration process is quick and easy and free of charge. - Does the supplied data support the statements made in the SWOT for your farm or have the risks been incorrectly assessed?
- Adjust the SWOT if necessary.
